Insights
It has always puzzled us when relatively recent history repeats itself, especially since we have the ability to study and apply lessons from the past and alter our behavior. Nevertheless, we feel we are reliving 1999 and 2000 today, with the current dramatic rise in the share prices of a
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“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham (father of value investing) This is not a time for relatives. Don’t worry, Mom, we aren’t referring to family. We mean that justifying an investment based
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“…the most dramatic thing that’s almost ever happened in the entire world history of finance.” – Charlie Munger when discussing the current stock market environment. There is a saying in the investment world, “You might know when you are in an investment bubble but still have no clue when or
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“Creating a relatable narrative means digging deep, asking hard questions and potentially airing some uncomfortable truths.” ― Tobin Trevarthen To understate the obvious, we are in confusing times. One day, we are elated that a vaccine might be approved and distributed. Another day, we rue the escalating caseload and impending new
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“The real hero is always a hero by mistake; he dreams of being an honest coward like everybody else.” —Umberto Eco False Heroes Just a note: We have been quiet for the past two months not because we lacked things to say but because we felt everyone needed a break.
Research
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“When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.” —Claudius, in Hamlet The Quarter in Review The second quarter was almost a mirror image—the same, but in reverse—of the first. March ended with the world shut down, investment markets in disarray, significant layoffs, and people fearing
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Over the long term, measured in years, the investment markets mimic the overall economy. We have seen many periods when the two diverged for a short time, sometimes significantly. And, admittedly, the word short is ambiguous. It could mean weeks, months, or, in some contexts, years. The greater a shift
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“The essence of intelligence is the ability to predict. To plan ahead, we simulate the world. The optimal action taken minimizes the predicted cost.” -Yann LeCun, artificial intelligence pioneer Earlier this month, Berkshire Hathaway held its annual meeting virtually. Warren Buffett’s statements were as poignant as ever. Most interesting
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“Let everything happen to you: beauty and terror. Just keep going. No feeling is final.” — Rainer Maria Rilke The Quarter in Review That was not fun. We discussed in our prior quarterly commentary that we thought the party had gone on a bit too long and those remaining were likely
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This is the question we are all asking ourselves as the Federal Reserve throws money at Wall Street and the federal government throws money at Main Street. The market’s rise this past week has many hoping it’s a sign that recovery is imminent, and we’ll be getting
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“By suppressing volatility, central banks created a system unable to deal with bad news. Or to put it another way, leverage was built up on the premise that nothing bad happens." -- Andrew Lapthorne Given their swift plunge, the markets appear to many to be out of control, which
