Insights
Dollar Dominance The media often plays up the narrative that the U.S. dollar is about to lose its dominance. We can understand investors’ fear but cannot find an argument that warrants the decline in dollar power. We could find reasons to think the dollar may lose some value relative
Insights
Prescribed Fire White oaks are large, deciduous trees native to eastern North America. The wood from the white oak is highly valued for its strength, durability, and resistance to decay and insect damage. It is also appreciated for its lack of porosity, making it vital to the spirits industry, which
Insights
Warren Buffett famously said, “Only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked,” which seems appropriate right now. With the period of easy and plentiful money in the rearview mirror, we see cracks within some banks agitating the investment markets. At first, it was one
Insights
We sit 13 months since the equity markets hit their high. The low in equity prices occurred about five months ago. As we noted in our last newsletter, growth in corporate profits is only now turning negative, and many past reliable signals would suggest that a period of economic softness
Insights
<img class="wp-image-6964 aligncenter" src="https://auour.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/a-screenshot-of-a-computer-description-automatica.png" alt="A screenshot of a computer Description automatically generated with medium confidence"> From The Perfect Storm Our investment objective
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A Changing Story This past year experienced a change in the investment story. The year started with the belief that inflation was transitory. Now, the story is one of higher for longer inflation. With historic changes in interest rates and global central banks determined to fight it at almost all
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We started Auour almost ten years ago with the desire to invest people’s hard-earned savings in a way to mitigate market downturns without sacrificing the market’s potential during the good times. It is a challenging objective. Our means of outperforming is to lose less in bad markets—
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It is hard to shake a stick without hitting an economist these days. And given how lousy a job they have been doing forecasting the economy, we would argue that a giant stick is needed so that we can hit more of them! We want to focus on two economists
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We would like to introduce Nobuya Nemoto, our guest for this month's newsletter. Nobu has been a great resource to Auour for the past year as we all navigate a unique economic landscape. "Inflation is the tiger whose tail central banks control,” according to the ex-Chief
Insights
Let’s start with a few historical observations: * Equity markets have gone up 80% of the time when viewed on a 6-month rolling period. They have experienced 10% or greater declines over a 6-month period approximately 10% of the time. * Of the worst downturns over the past 60
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“It is more sekyr [certain] a byrd in your fest, Than to haue three in the sky a‐boue.” - John Capgrave's The Life of St Katharine of Alexandria, 1450 The last four months have seen investors move from a futurity (new word for us) approach to a more
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“So I just don’t think a lot of people have seen this. When’s the last time anyone here has seen interest rates up 2 years in a row and 6 or 7 times this year and 4 or 5 next? Nobody has seen that. Nobody has seen a
