Insights
We sit 13 months since the equity markets hit their high. The low in equity prices occurred about five months ago. As we noted in our last newsletter, growth in corporate profits is only now turning negative, and many past reliable signals would suggest that a period of economic softness
Insights
<img class="wp-image-6964 aligncenter" src="https://auour.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/a-screenshot-of-a-computer-description-automatica.png" alt="A screenshot of a computer Description automatically generated with medium confidence"> From The Perfect Storm Our investment objective
Insights
A Changing Story This past year experienced a change in the investment story. The year started with the belief that inflation was transitory. Now, the story is one of higher for longer inflation. With historic changes in interest rates and global central banks determined to fight it at almost all
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We started Auour almost ten years ago with the desire to invest people’s hard-earned savings in a way to mitigate market downturns without sacrificing the market’s potential during the good times. It is a challenging objective. Our means of outperforming is to lose less in bad markets—
Insights
It is hard to shake a stick without hitting an economist these days. And given how lousy a job they have been doing forecasting the economy, we would argue that a giant stick is needed so that we can hit more of them! We want to focus on two economists
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We would like to introduce Nobuya Nemoto, our guest for this month's newsletter. Nobu has been a great resource to Auour for the past year as we all navigate a unique economic landscape. "Inflation is the tiger whose tail central banks control,” according to the ex-Chief
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Let’s start with a few historical observations: * Equity markets have gone up 80% of the time when viewed on a 6-month rolling period. They have experienced 10% or greater declines over a 6-month period approximately 10% of the time. * Of the worst downturns over the past 60
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“It is more sekyr [certain] a byrd in your fest, Than to haue three in the sky a‐boue.” - John Capgrave's The Life of St Katharine of Alexandria, 1450 The last four months have seen investors move from a futurity (new word for us) approach to a more
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“So I just don’t think a lot of people have seen this. When’s the last time anyone here has seen interest rates up 2 years in a row and 6 or 7 times this year and 4 or 5 next? Nobody has seen that. Nobody has seen a
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Two thoughts from Oliver Burkeman (h/t @jposhaughnessey) “True security lies in the unrestrained embrace of insecurity—in the recognition that we never really stand on solid ground, and never can.” “Uncertainty is where things happen.” Over the past two long-drawn-out years, we have discussed the idea that
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The world’s addiction to low interest rates reminds us of the Sirens of Greek mythology who allegedly (never convicted) inhabited an island between Aeaea (and you thought Auour had a lot of vowels) and the rocks of Scylla. Their sweet songs (low interest rates) attracted sailors (borrowers), only to
Insights
In our May 2021 newsletter, Breaking Windows, we discussed inflation and its impact on the investment markets. We said the primary drivers of inflation were the large stimuli injected unevenly into the global economic system through governments and central banks. That newsletter focused on one side of the equation—demand—
